I hope the Rivian R3 will be the vehicle to topple Tesla

Summary

  • Tesla is ripe for being kicked off the top of the North American EV market, given its industry control and Elon Musk’s politics.
  • The Rivian R3 is poised to undercut Tesla vehicles on price while carrying a lot of the prestige Tesla used to have.
  • Tesla isn’t about to collapse like a house of cards, but it could find itself vulnerable by the time the R3 ships in 2027.



Covering tech giants is my stock-in-trade, but typically, I’m not too invested in which company comes out on top. I don’t own any literal investments in them, and to me it doesn’t make sense to be a fan — companies like Apple, Google, and yes, Rivian are ultimately just out for their bottom line, so I’ll only stick with them as long as they have products I need or want. Some of them might have a good track record, but that can always flip on a dime.

That brings me to Tesla and the Rivian R3. To date, Rivian hasn’t really been in a position to challenge Tesla, except perhaps through the R1T, which had a years-long headstart on the Cybertruck. But that could change with the R3, and I hope it does — and not just for the reasons you’re probably imagining.

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Politics are just a start

Tesla logo with an X on top of it
Pocket-lint / Tesla

Pocket-lint / Tesla

I try to leave naked politics out of my op-eds, but it’s hard to dance around them this time. I just can’t support Tesla under Elon Musk, not with what he’s doing to the US government, and especially not with his ties to figures in the far right. Musk recently backed Germany’s AfD party in federal elections — despite the party having members who have openly flirted with Nazism. I’ve admired Tesla vehicles in the past, but until the company has nothing to do with Musk, I don’t think anyone should give them another cent.


More than that, though, the North American EV industry is too thoroughly controlled by Tesla. While its share has been on the decline for a while now, it still controlled 44% of the US EV market in Q4 2024, according to CarEdge. It’s harder to find numbers for Canada, but I do know that when I drive around Alberta, the EVs I spot are almost always Teslas. I see one or more of them every day, whereas even a Hyundai Ioniq can feel like a white whale.

Given the number of recalls on the Cybertruck, I wouldn’t buy one regardless of who Tesla’s CEO is.

That’s not healthy for the industry. For EVs to flourish, there has to be not just a diversity of options for different buyers, but active competition driving advancement. Not everyone is a fan of Tesla’s minimalist approach, and the complaints about Tesla’s quality control are often very valid. Given the number of recalls on the Cybertruck, I wouldn’t buy one regardless of who Tesla’s CEO was.

Then there’s the perennial problem of EVs — cost. Tesla has officially abandoned the idea of a product more affordable than the Model 3, unless the Cybercab really does succeed in revolutionizing self-driving tech. Many people can’t afford a car over $30,000, let alone the Model 3’s $44,000. Inevitably, we’re going to need other, less expensive brands to step up to the plate if EVs are going to become de facto. I’d be okay with Chinese brands like BYD filling that role if the country didn’t have political and labor issues of its own.


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Enter the Rivian R3, stage left

Could the crossover SUV hit a sweet spot?

Loading cargo into the Rivian R3's frunk.

Rivian

The R3 is still at least two years out, but it’s expected to cost about $37,000. That’s pricey compared to, say, a Chevy Equinox EV, but it’s still several thousand less than a Model 3, let alone Tesla’s actual crossover products, the Model Y and Model X.

Undercutting sticker prices won’t mean much on its own, though. There are other EVs under $40,000, including crossovers besides the Equinox. Hypothetically, there’s no reason a company like Kia or Toyota couldn’t be the one to knock Tesla down a peg.

The R3 should put Rivian’s prestige in semi-affordable price bracket by making compromises most drivers will be more than okay with.

The real differentiator is Rivian’s focus. Like Tesla, it’s an EV-only brand, concentrated on vehicles with cutting-edge design. Companies like Kia are cluing into the need to drop their old templates, but there’s an inherent prestige to a vehicle built from the ground up for the latest tech — much in the same way smartphone shoppers would rather own an iPhone 16 Pro than an ordinary, mid-range Samsung device.


The R3 should put Rivian’s prestige within a semi-affordable price bracket by making compromises most drivers will be more than okay with. Yes, it won’t be able to carry as many people as an R1S, or load as much cargo as an R1T — forget about a gear tunnel — but most people don’t actually need those features. They’re driving a kid or two to school, picking up groceries, or taking their bike or PEV out for a trail ride. The R3 should have plenty of room for these things, certainly when you fold the rear seats or mount a rack.

And of course, many SUV drivers aren’t actually plowing over rocks and steep inclines — they’re driving around city streets, or at worst on snow, dirt, gravel, and grass. The R3 should still be a capable offroader, in keeping with Rivian’s branding, but with the benefit of slotting better into garages and parking spots. It also seems likely to get massive range — the R2, coming in 2026, is expected to top 300 miles (483 kilometers). Something with an even lighter body should go further, possibly defeating any edge Tesla might have in range.

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No instant revolution

A nail in the coffin, maybe

The interior or a pre-production Rivian R3.

Rivian

Let’s be clear — I’m not expecting the R3 to be so hugely successful on its own that it forces Tesla dealerships to close up shop. But there’s the potential for serious disruption, especially since Rivian doesn’t carry the same baggage as its rival. The company may be struggling with issues like delivery times and improving reliability, but that’s nothing compared to worries about funding far-right political activities.


A more likely scenario, assuming Rivian can scale up production fast enough, is that the R3 will put a serious dent in Tesla’s marketshare and become a tipping point. There’s no sign that Musk is about to alter his politics or resign, and other promising EVs are slated for the near future, such as the Kia EV2. By the time 2027 rolls around, Tesla may already be in a weak position, only waiting for another viable brand to steal the spotlight.

Could Tesla hold out? Certainly. For now, it’s well ahead in cash and production capacity, and it has friends in high places to pull some strings. Ultimately, though, we’re going to get to vote with our wallets, and I suspect a lot of people are going to be motivated both by the R3’s features and by avoiding Tesla’s stain.

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